Before all this hit MLB was looking to reduce the size and scope of their Minor League operations. As of the 2020 season there are 160 Minor League Baseball affiliates. I’m hearing 40 teams will be eliminated. Bottom line: 40 less teams, estimating 25 players per roster= 1000 less pro opportunities. Though my guess is unassigned players within an organization will stay in extended Spring Training as a developmental squad. But it’s inevitable that there will be a whole lot less jobs in pro ball.
College Baseball is on tenuous ground at best… Few teams actually make money, most are a financial drain on institutions. Furman eliminated it’s D1 baseball program in the aftermath of Covid-19 and Bowling Green did as well though the school later reversed course and restored the program. Top college coaches from around the country have taken notice of the “writing on the wall”… Led by UM Erik Bakich a panel made up of Power 5 coaches have rolled out what they call “ The New College Baseball Model” to ensure the long-term viability of the sport as we currently recognize it at the Division 1 level.
Division 1 programs have 11.7 scholarships to distribute among a max of 27 players. Each scholarship player receives a minimum of 25%. It should be noted that 11.7 is the upper limit. Some schools offer less than that because they are not fully funded. College Football and Basketball are big revenue sports and with the cancellation of the NCAA Hoops tournament and College Football likely playing in front of very small or no crowds at all a big revenue stream has been cut off. Even if it’s only temporary it’s likely to have reverberations that are felt for years due to the slim operating budgets at many universities.
NYU Marketing Professor Scott Galloway said the following:
“There are hundreds, if not thousands, of universities with a sodium pentathol cocktail of big tuition and small endowments that will begin their death march this fall.”
“Universities should be doing what every other organization whose business model has been threatened by Covid-19 is doing: cutting costs.”
This leaves College Baseball especially vulnerable.
Division 2 (9 max per team) and NAIA ( up to 12 per team) do offer baseball scholarships and may be viable alternatives. Their funding is also less likely to be impacted and may even improve as some families may not be able to justify paying a big tuition bill/student loan to attend a “Division 1” school. Professor Galloway also brings up another salient point in that you’re likely “going to have value propositions that have been rendered untenable overnight.” In other words the Big Prestigious school is not going to be offering the value you have come to expect from it’s reputation. Zoom anyone? No campus life or college football? Exactly what am I paying for?
Circling back to baseball… There is no doubt that the landscape is changing very quickly and will likely never be the same again. With fewer athletes being taken in the draft (and capped signing bonuses for undrafted players) many college juniors will return for their senior season and push incoming freshmen and rising freshmen down the depth chart. This is likely to be the case in 2021 and 2022 because of the reduction in draft picks and altered Minor League landscape.
Independent Minor League’s like the United Shore Professional Baseball League may take up some of the “slack” from the affiliated minor leagues teams that are cut and provide those players with opportunities. So I would expect a few more Independent organizations to sprout up seeing an opportunity. Also likely is that many of the athletes in the Independent leagues will be “squeezed out” in favor of affiliated players with higher profiles and quite frankly more talent.
The bottom line is baseball is changing and it’s never going back to the way it was. Add in the absolutely distasteful back and forth between the MLB owners and Players Association regarding return to play and baseball is taking a BIG hit. The game will survive and the best players, the most talented players will still find their way to the top. But for the rank and file it just got a lot more competitive. Fewer spots, less playing time… Development is going to be at a premium and the organizations that do that well at any level (MLB, MILB, D1, D2, NAIA, High School, Club/Travel) will continue to be successful.
Parents/athletes when your athlete is young you get one real chance to do this “baseball” thing right and it starts by educating yourself and surrounding your athlete with folks that understand how to truly develop talent. It’s not what you think because you likely haven’t experienced it yet. Especially if you’ve been involved in the current youth sports model. Out of less comes better… If you know what path to follow.
Scott Galloway’s thought provoking article on higher education post Covid-19
No comments:
Post a Comment